Microsimulation analysis of public spending on children across the life course in Bolivia, Belarus, South Africa, Cina and Uganda

Title Microsimulation analysis of public spending on children across the life course in low- and middle-income countries

Location Bolivia, Belarus, South Africa, China and Uganda.

Duration March – July 2019

Partner UNICEF IRC

 

Contesto

The main objective of the study on social protection policies for children in low- and middle- income countries was to understand the extent, patterns and trends in public spending targeting children and families in order to identify the most effective period and policy package. The analyses used a life-course perspective to understand how policies and spending are mapped from the period of conception up to late adolescence (0-18 years) in order to establish the most effective and efficient period and policy package that has the highest return on child development outcomes.

Policies that were included in the study were those that directly benefit children (and adolescents) and their families, including those on social protection, including birth registration, social assistance transfer programs, social insurance including parental leave and family support, child protection, health, nutrition, education, employment and vocational training for youth.

The low- and middle- income countries selected were: Bolivia, Belarus, South Africa, Cina and Uganda.

Bolivia has become a country case study for its sizeable efforts to structure a universalistic welfare system and to reduce a traditionally high inequality, which characterizes also other Latin America countries. Belarus, on the other hand, is an example of a transition economy who experienced a deep economic, social and demographic crises over the 90’ and a recovery over the last decade (with a huge fall of poverty rates).

Cina, instead, has become a country case study as it is the largest country for population and has had a growth over last 30 years which is one of the most impressive social-economic phenomena ever observed: it entailed the exit from poverty of hundreds millions people even if at the cost growing inequality.

South Africa has been analysed as an example of a large and emerging SSA economy facing several major challenges such as a growing population, the impact of the AIDS epidemic, high levels of vertical and horizontal inequality, etc. Finally, Researchers looked at  Uganda as it is a relatively poor and a landlocked SSA country whose economy is still largely relying on agriculture. Moreover the Ugandan government had been working on the creation of a social protection system.

 

Obiettivo Generale

The Inclusive Development Unt was involved in the project to run microsimulation models, to hypothesize and simulate the most effective period and policy packages to benefit child development outcomes. The microsimulation are based on profiles and data collected on public spending provided by UNICEF.

 

Cosa abbiamo fatto?

The microsimulation analysis elaborated by ARCO Researchers is based on the OECD Tax-Benefit Model (OECD TBM).

The OECD TBM incorporates detailed policy rules for tax liabilities and benefit entitlements and it is applied to individual families across OECD countries. It calculates net household incomes and computes the amount of taxes and benefits each family is liable to pay and entitled to receive. Simulations can be run for a wide range of policy-relevant family types and labour markets scenario. The model can be used to analyse a number of phenomena ranging from anti-poverty policies to inequality.

This model is versatile, flexible, and largely customizable. For this reason, it has been possible to adapt it to the case of non-OECD low and middle-income countries.

 

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