Microsimulation to evaluate impact of social protection policies on child poverty in Tunisia

Title Micromsimulation to evaluate impact of social protection policies to contrast effects of inflation on child poverty in Tunisia

Location Tunisia

Duration October 2023 – april 2024

Partners IRC UNICEF e il Centre de Recherches et d’Études Sociales (CRES)

Funding UNICEF Tunisia

 

Contesto

In the early 2020s, Tunisia faced multiple burdens among which increased oil and wheat prices because of the Ukrainian crisis, limited financial capacity and sluggish economic growth. These burdens impacted at national level, making the country vulnerable to international market shocks and rising inflation. Because of this economic instability, poverty rate increased with the most serious effects on children, especially those living in the poorest areas.

To protect children multidimensional wellbeing, Tunisia envisaged the adoption of new social protection policies aiming at counterbalancing the impact of high inflation, especially the inflation on food and energy prices.

 

General Objective

The Inclusive Development Unit has been involved by IRC UNICEF, CRES and UNICEF Tunisia to conduct the economic analysis of the impacts of inflationary shocks on child poverty to determine the socioeconomic profiles of the ‘new poor’ in Tunisia.

 

Our contribution

Researchers of the Inclusive Development Unit conducted a microsimulation analysis using the Tunisian Household Budget Surveys, provided guidance and technical support to CRES over the development of an analytical report, supported the production of a policy brief and participated in internal and external dissemination of results.

Using static microsimulations, the study estimated the impact of price changes on household welfare and national poverty levels, taking into account regional disparities, consumption patterns, household composition and the presence of children.

The analysis supplemented the available evidence, producing ex ante estimates of expected poverty levels at the end of 2023 at a stage when observed data were not yet available. In this way, policymakers were provided with forward-looking guidance to help them promptly shape social protection responses.

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